772 forecasters

Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?

99%chance

99%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

ClayGraubard casens

Opened:

Feb 25, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolved:

Nov 10, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 25, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

🏆 2022 Leaderboard

Russian forces, aided by heavy aerial bombardments, edge forward in Ukraine

CNN•Oct 18, 2025

Evaluating Trump’s Claim that Ukraine Can Win the War

AntiWar•Oct 14, 2025

The Russia-Ukraine War Continues

AntiWar•Oct 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?