Related Questions on Metaculus:
How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?
A number of countries are actively preparing for a large influx of refugees from Ukraine as the military conflict escalates. The UN chief announced today that in the first 48 hours of the conflict, over 50,000 Ukranians have fled their country, seeking refuge amongst their neighboring countries.
“The U.S. government estimates that an invasion could prompt one to five million Ukrainians to flee the country, and Ukraine’s defense minister put the figure at three to five million. Charity Unicef on Friday also projected that up to 5 million Ukrainians could flee the country.”
Other Eastern European countries, especially Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova, and Romania, are expecting the brunt of the flow of refugees from Ukraine. Poland is actively preparing for up to a million new refugees to enter the country, and the Pentagon has sent 3,000 US troops to Poland to assist with the relocation and rehabilitation of migrants.
Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?
This question will resolve positively if at least 5 million people attempt to flee Ukraine and seek refugee status within other countries during the Russo-Ukrainian war beginning February 23, 2022.
We will be using the definition of a refugee from the United Nations.
Reports may come directly from individual country’s governments who are accepting refugees, or may come from at least five reputable media outlets all confirming at least a total of 5 million refugees. Any reports from the United Nations, including from UNICEF or UNHCR, can count as one of the resolution sources, but will not count as an exclusive source in replacement of the four other sources.