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Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind13%

Microsoft5%

xAI3%

1 comment

41 forecasters

Will Chegg file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?

30%chance

15% this week

0 comments

48 forecasters

Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?

Current estimate

11.3

3 comments

13 forecasters

When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?

In 2026-202744.7%

In 2028-202924.6%

2030 or later21.6%

5 comments

35 forecasters

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

18%chance

3 comments

22 forecasters

What will be the average number of hours per day spent on the following activities by the US population in 2029 according to the American Time Use Survey?

Leisure and sports5.26

Working and work-related activities3.31

6 comments

51 forecasters

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

48%chance

condition

11 forecasters

Conditional Cup

3 comments

25 forecasters

On December 31, 2027, in how many countries will courts have enforced a judgment based on a decentralized arbitration platform decision?

167.9%

222%

3-46.1%

1 comment

33 forecasters

Before 2030, will traditional banks offer regulated DeFi yield products, with consumer protections?

34%chance

9% this week

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Will Chegg file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?

Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?

When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

What will be the average number of hours per day spent on the following activities by the US population in 2029 according to the American Time Use Survey?

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

US TikTok ban or forced sale?

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

On December 31, 2027, in how many countries will courts have enforced a judgment based on a decentralized arbitration platform decision?

Before 2030, will traditional banks offer regulated DeFi yield products, with consumer protections?

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Will Chegg file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?

Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?

When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

What will be the average number of hours per day spent on the following activities by the US population in 2029 according to the American Time Use Survey?

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

US TikTok ban or forced sale?

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

On December 31, 2027, in how many countries will courts have enforced a judgment based on a decentralized arbitration platform decision?

Before 2030, will traditional banks offer regulated DeFi yield products, with consumer protections?