45 comments
170 forecasters
When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?
Current estimate
16 Mar 2029
2 comments
9 forecasters
Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?
44%chance
41% this week
4 comments
3 forecasters
Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?
74%chance
3 comments
1 forecaster
Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?
70%chance
3 comments
5 forecasters
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?
7%chance
14% this week
97 comments
184 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Mar 2032
0 comments
7 forecasters
Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?
15%chance
5% this week
1 comment
2 forecasters
Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters before 2027?
49%chance
567 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
27 Nov 2027
Key Factors