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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

When will any national government, international organization, or supranational body formally acknowledge the moral patienthood of an AI system?

Forecast revealed in 3 days
condition

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

12 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

69%
69%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

7%
7%
2
no comments0
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Will a developed country experience >20% yearly GDP growth before 2031?

5%chance

Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?

Germany75%
Italy25%
Australia65%

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jan 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

condition

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030

15 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

67%
67%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

11%
11%
3
no comments0
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%
Singaporeresult: Yes
Taiwan65%
and 9 others

What will be the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States in the following years using May 2023 dollars?

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

result07 Aug 2025 17:00

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

6%chance
6% this week