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Artificial Intelligence
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627
comments
1.8k
forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Aug 2033
16
comments
66
forecasters
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
45%
chance
10%
this week
7
comments
126
forecasters
Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?
2026
34.6%
2027
29.5%
2028
14.2%
3 others
22%
2
comments
14
forecasters
Will Aschenbrenner’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ be developed by the end of 2027?
75%
chance
15%
this week
Metaculus AI Forecasting Benchmark Resources Page
3
18
18
comments
77
comments
101
forecasters
When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?
Current estimate
01 Jun 2027
9
comments
40
forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerberg
result:
No
Sundar Pichai
result:
No
Sam Altman
result:
No
2 others
54
comments
163
forecasters
Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?
result
Yes
39
comments
63
forecasters
What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?
5
comments
41
forecasters
In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?
Not before 2031
78.2%
2029 or 2030
17.7%
2027 or 2028
4%
1 other
0%
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