45 comments
165 forecasters
When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?
Current estimate
14 Jul 2029
2 comments
4 forecasters
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?
21%chance
2 comments
4 forecasters
Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?
85%chance
1 comment
2 forecasters
Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters before 2027?
49%chance
0 comments
6 forecasters
Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?
13%chance
3% today
Contributed by the AI Diffusion community.
1 comment
6 forecasters
What percentage of workers will report that they use AI daily as a part of their role in 2029?
Current estimate
81.3%
Key Factors
24 comments
80 forecasters
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
50%chance
5% this week
Key Factors
Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.
2 comments
11 forecasters
Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?
62.8%chance
2 comments
83 forecasters
Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?
3%chance
14% this week