• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
❓
Top Questions
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
💎
Metaculus Cup
⏳
AI 2027
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Contributed by the JetBrains community.

0 comments
3 forecasters

For these benchmarks, what percentage of problems do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?

AI2 Reasoning Challenge97.9
Toloka's µ-MATH94.1
Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A90.8
0 comments
40 forecasters

Will Chegg file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?

30%chance
0 comments
44 forecasters

Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?

Current estimate
9.71
14 comments
84 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind20%
Microsoft5%
xAI4%
3 comments
13 forecasters

When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?

In 2026-202745.4%
In 2028-202922.8%
2030 or later21.9%
26 comments
43 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

11%chance
17% this week
2 comments
21 forecasters

What will be the average number of hours per day spent on the following activities by the US population in 2029 according to the American Time Use Survey?

Leisure and sports5.2
Working and work-related activities3.32

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments
12 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

30%chance
20% this week
0 comments
29 forecasters

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

40%chance
20% this week
17 comments
96 forecasters

Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?

60%chance