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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
condition

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

12 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

69%
69%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

7%
7%
3
no comments0
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

When will any national government, international organization, or supranational body formally acknowledge the moral patienthood of an AI system?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Will a developed country experience >20% yearly GDP growth before 2031?

5%chance

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jan 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

condition

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030

15 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

67%
67%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

11%
11%
4
no comments0
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?

Germany71%
Italy25%
Australia60%

What will be the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States in the following years using May 2023 dollars?

Contributed by the Meercast's Community Page community.

What Percentage Of US Farms Will Be Reported To Have Used Precision Agriculture For Crops or Livestock By Aug. 2027?

21
% of Farms

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%
Singaporeresult: Yes
Taiwan65%
and 9 others

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

5%chance
7% this week