1 comment
12 forecasters
Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?
45%chance
4 comments
3 forecasters
How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?
Current estimate
2.28%
39 comments
64 forecasters
What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?
45 comments
170 forecasters
When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?
Current estimate
16 Mar 2029
3 comments
6 forecasters
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?
21%chance
14% this week
6 comments
4 forecasters
Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?
74%chance
Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.
4 comments
13 forecasters
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
70%chance
15% this week
18 comments
80 forecasters
Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?
1%chance
1% this week
Key Factors
11 comments
19 forecasters
When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?
Current estimate
18 Jun 2026
Key Factors