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627 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
Aug 2033
16 comments
66 forecasters

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

45%chance
10% this week
7 comments
126 forecasters

Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?

202634.6%
202729.5%
202814.2%
2 comments
14 forecasters

Will Aschenbrenner’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ be developed by the end of 2027?

75%chance
15% this week

Metaculus AI Forecasting Benchmark Resources Page

3
1818 comments
77 comments
101 forecasters

When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?

Current estimate
01 Jun 2027
9 comments
40 forecasters

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
54 comments
163 forecasters

Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?

resultYes
39 comments
63 forecasters

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

5 comments
41 forecasters

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

Not before 203178.2%
2029 or 203017.7%
2027 or 20284%