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Contributed by the
JetBrains
community.
0
comments
3
forecasters
For these benchmarks, what percentage of problems do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?
AI2 Reasoning Challenge
97.9
Toloka's µ-MATH
94.1
Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A
90.8
2 others
0
comments
40
forecasters
Will Chegg file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?
30%
chance
0
comments
44
forecasters
Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?
Current estimate
9.71
14
comments
84
forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind
20%
Microsoft
5%
xAI
4%
14 others
3
comments
13
forecasters
When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?
In 2026-2027
45.4%
In 2028-2029
22.8%
2030 or later
21.9%
2 others
10%
26
comments
43
forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%
chance
17%
this week
2
comments
21
forecasters
What will be the average number of hours per day spent on the following activities by the US population in 2029 according to the American Time Use Survey?
Leisure and sports
5.2
Working and work-related activities
3.32
Contributed by the
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
community.
0
comments
12
forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
30%
chance
20%
this week
0
comments
29
forecasters
Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?
40%
chance
20%
this week
17
comments
96
forecasters
Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?
60%
chance
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