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Q1 AI Benchmarking Results: Pros Crush Bots

10

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

12

What percentage in the US will trust AI in the following years, according to the Edelman Trust Barometer?

Forecast revealed

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public?

11.5 months this week

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

What will be the highest average score among a selected subset of VideoGameBench on January 1, 2028?

7.8 % this week

What percentage of Americans will consider AI or advancement of computers/technology to be the most important problem in January 2028?

161.5 percentage points this week

What will the highest percentage of overall compute capacity held by a single organisation be on January 1, 2028?

4.7 % this week

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?