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US Democracy Index

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When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Current estimate

16 Mar 2029

97 comments

184 forecasters

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Current estimate

Mar 2032

0 comments

32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud12%

Amazon Web Services11%

2 comments

40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Microsoft Azure5%

Amazon Web Services5%

567 comments

1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

27 Nov 2027

Key Factors

39 comments

64 forecasters

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

71 comments

414 forecasters

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

99.9%chance

13 comments

12 forecasters

What will OpenAI's estimated Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) be in 2024?

Latest estimate

4.07B

This question is closed for forecasting.

6 comments

20 forecasters

What percentage of the US workforce will be in computer specialist roles in 2050?

Current estimate

2.12%

0 comments

23 forecasters

Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?

20%chance

10% this week