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14
comments
85
forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind
13%
Microsoft
5%
xAI
3%
14 others
0
comments
29
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
16%
Microsoft Azure
14%
Google Cloud
12%
1 other
12
comments
31
forecasters
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?
Vietnam
85%
Singapore
result:
Yes
Taiwan
70%
9 others
2
comments
38
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH
27%
Microsoft Azure
5%
Amazon Web Services
5%
1 other
559
comments
1.7k
forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
29 May 2027
7
comments
13
forecasters
What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years?
6
comments
16
forecasters
How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market?
61
comments
100
forecasters
When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?
Current estimate
23 Apr 2027
5
comments
19
forecasters
When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?
Current estimate
Sep 2035
condition
US TikTok ban or forced sale?
Resolved:
Yes
11
forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China AI Treaty? (2025)
1%
1%
Resolved:
No
US-China AI Treaty? (2025)
5%
5%
Resolved:
Annulled
1
0
comments
11
11
forecasters
Conditional Cup
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