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US Democracy Index

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When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Current estimate

19 Jul 2029

condition

13 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

0 comments

32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud12%

Amazon Web Services11%

2 comments

40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Amazon Web Services5%

Microsoft Azure5%

39 comments

63 forecasters

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

13 comments

12 forecasters

What will OpenAI's estimated Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) be in 2024?

Latest estimate

4.07B

This question is closed for forecasting.

566 comments

1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

20 Nov 2027

Key Factors

condition

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

13 forecasters

if yes

if no

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

22%

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

13 forecasters

35 forecasters

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

19 comments

69 forecasters

Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?

2.5%chance

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

What will OpenAI's estimated Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) be in 2024?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

What will OpenAI's estimated Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) be in 2024?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?