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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jan 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

What will be the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States in the following years using May 2023 dollars?

How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market?

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%
Singaporeresult: Yes
Taiwan69%
and 9 others

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH20%
Amazon Web Services15%
Google Cloud15%
and 1 other

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%
Microsoft Azure8%
Amazon Web Services8%
and 1 other

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%
Nvidia5%
Google5%

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

26 Mar 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

resultYes

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

result07 Aug 2025 17:00

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)