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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

04 Mar 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

May 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

How many software developers will there be in the US in the following years?

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

15 Sep 2025

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

resultNo

Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?

resultNo

In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?

resultYes

Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?

resultYes

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

25 Aug 2025

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?

resultNo