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629 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
Aug 2033
15 comments
16 forecasters

When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?

00
0 comments
31 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%
2 comments
51 forecasters

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99.9%chance
2 comments
39 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
9 comments
60 forecasters

Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years?

39 comments
63 forecasters

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

8 comments
13 forecasters

How many software developers will there be in the US in the following years?

77 comments
101 forecasters

When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?

Current estimate
01 Jun 2027
12 comments
92 forecasters

When will most Americans personally know someone who has dated an AI?

Current estimate
Feb 2033