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1
comment
9
forecasters
Will the 2026 ICPC World Finals be held in China?
82%
chance
42%
this week
14
comments
85
forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind
13%
Microsoft
5%
xAI
3%
14 others
0
comments
29
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
16%
Microsoft Azure
14%
Google Cloud
12%
1 other
condition
US TikTok ban or forced sale?
Resolved:
Yes
11
forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China AI Treaty? (2025)
1%
1%
Resolved:
No
US-China AI Treaty? (2025)
5%
5%
Resolved:
Annulled
1
0
comments
11
11
forecasters
Conditional Cup
2
comments
38
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH
27%
Microsoft Azure
5%
Amazon Web Services
5%
1 other
559
comments
1.7k
forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
27 May 2027
7
comments
13
forecasters
What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years?
6
comments
16
forecasters
How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market?
188
comments
2.7k
forecasters
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
96%
chance
9
comments
40
forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerberg
result:
No
Sundar Pichai
result:
No
Sam Altman
result:
No
2 others
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