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US Democracy Index

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When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Current estimate

16 Mar 2029

0 comments

33 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH30%

Google Cloud16%

Microsoft Azure13%

2 comments

40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Microsoft Azure5%

Amazon Web Services5%

39 comments

64 forecasters

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

632 comments

1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

Aug 2033

Key Factors

14 comments

12 forecasters

What will OpenAI's estimated Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) be in 2024?

Latest estimate

4.07B

This question is closed for forecasting.

568 comments

1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

01 Nov 2027

Key Factors

20 comments

70 forecasters

Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?

2.5%chance

11 comments

138 forecasters

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

91%chance

13 comments

132 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%chance