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US Democracy Index

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When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Current estimate

08 Aug 2029

condition

13 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

0 comments

32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud12%

Amazon Web Services11%

96 comments

183 forecasters

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Current estimate

Sep 2031

2 comments

40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Amazon Web Services5%

Microsoft Azure5%

39 comments

64 forecasters

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

566 comments

1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

20 Nov 2027

Key Factors

condition

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

13 forecasters

if yes

if no

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

22%

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

13 forecasters

12 forecasters

What will OpenAI's estimated Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) be in 2024?

Latest estimate

4.07B

This question is closed for forecasting.

8 comments

35 forecasters

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

What will OpenAI's estimated Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) be in 2024?

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

What will OpenAI's estimated Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) be in 2024?

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?