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0 comments
12 forecasters

How much of major electronic design automation (EDA) companies' revenue will come from the Chinese market in the last quarter of 2025?

Current estimate
17.8%
36 comments
65 forecasters

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

13%chance
3.3% this week
630 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
May 2033
564 comments
1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
27 Sep 2027
0 comments
31 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%
16 comments
23 forecasters

Will there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?

92%chance
2 comments
56 forecasters

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

85%chance
19 comments
20 forecasters

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

Current estimate
Oct 2035
2 comments
39 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
1 comment
9 forecasters

When will there be a new record for the best proven upper bound on the average rank of elliptic curves?

Current estimate
22 Apr 2029