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0
comments
34
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
30%
Google Cloud
16%
Amazon Web Services
15%
1 other
39
comments
64
forecasters
What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?
2
comments
41
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH
25%
Amazon Web Services
5%
Microsoft Azure
5%
1 other
45
comments
170
forecasters
When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?
Current estimate
16 Mar 2029
2
comments
37
forecasters
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?
AMD
5%
Nvidia
5%
Google
5%
1
comment
11
forecasters
Will the 2026 ICPC World Finals be held in China?
33%
chance
17%
this week
632
comments
1.8k
forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jul 2033
Key Factors
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
AI companies dont get funding (due to AI bubble bursting)
Someone solves the alignment problem (I'd hope timelines are longer without this & shorter with it)
7
comments
6
forecasters
What will be the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States in the following years using May 2023 dollars?
2
comments
49
forecasters
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
99.9%
chance
9
comments
44
forecasters
If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?
2%
chance
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