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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Apr 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

call girls in pune

28 Aug 2025

Key Factor

call girls in pune

⚕️Primum Non Nocere: A Physician’s Perspective on AI in Medicine

10
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

13%chance
4.8% this week

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%
Singapore80%
Taiwan73%
and 9 others

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

25 Apr 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Equitable Distribution of AGI Gains

4
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

When will Google DeepMind's Gemini model be publicly released?

result06 Dec 2023 15:00