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US Democracy Index

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When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Current estimate

16 Mar 2029

0 comments

32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH30%

Google Cloud12%

Amazon Web Services11%

2 comments

40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Microsoft Azure5%

Amazon Web Services5%

0 comments

24 forecasters

Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?

15%chance

15% this week

39 comments

64 forecasters

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

13 comments

131 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%chance

97 comments

184 forecasters

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Current estimate

Mar 2032

3 comments

52 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

80%chance

631 comments

1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

Jul 2033

Key Factors

76 comments

297 forecasters

When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

Current estimate

28 Aug 2026

Key Factors