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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Dec 2033
7.2 years this week

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Dec 2032

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH20%
Amazon Web Services15%
Google Cloud15%
and 1 other

How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%
Amazon Web Services8%
Microsoft Azure7%
and 1 other

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

05 Jan 2026

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
and 2 others

Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024?

OpenAI investors against OpenAI boardresult: No
Government antitrust against Microsoftresult: No
OpenAI against Microsoftresult: No
and 2 others

Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?

resultYes