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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jul 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

12 Jan 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

How many software developers will there be in the US in the following years?

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Singapore75%
Vietnam70%
Taiwan67%
and 9 others

When will Windows 11 market share exceed Windows 10’s according to the Steam Hardware and Software Survey?

Annulled

In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?

resultYes

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

23 Aug 2025

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

80%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH20%
Amazon Web Services8%
Microsoft Azure7%
and 1 other

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

resultNo