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17
comments
145
forecasters
Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?
8.5%
chance
2.5%
this week
10
comments
3
forecasters
What will be the total awarded grand-prize sum for XPRIZE Healthspan?
$0
52.4%
$61 million – 10 Year Functional Improvement
18.8%
$71 million – 15 Year Functional Improvement
14.9%
1 other
14%
2
comments
95
forecasters
Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?
0.1%
chance
3
comments
10
forecasters
How large will the global market for perovskite solar cells be (in millions of dollars) in 2030?
Current estimate
6867 $M
9
comments
32
forecasters
Will humans be able to communicate via telepathy before 2050?
60%
chance
10%
this week
9
comments
25
forecasters
Will >1% of global primary aluminum be produced by carbon-free technology before 2030?
43.2%
chance
9.9%
this week
0
comments
48
forecasters
By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?
1%
chance
1
comment
23
forecasters
Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?
1%
chance
2
comments
12
forecasters
When will pig-to-human xenotransplantation become a routine medical procedure?
Current estimate
Dec 2043
5
comments
60
forecasters
Will there be a US-China war before 2050?
15%
chance
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