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Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA continuously through December 31, 2025?

50%chance

35% this week

84 comments

628 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

8 comments

24 forecasters

Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?

An uncrewed craft75%

At least one person36%

At least one person—and return them to Earth20%

2 comments

59 forecasters

Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

0.1%chance

6 comments

54 forecasters

When will Blue Origin's "New Glenn" rocket complete its first successful test flight?

Latest estimate

29 Mar 2021

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

7 forecasters

Will the Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hit the Earth or the Moon before 2033?

3%chance

5 comments

27 forecasters

When will Jeff Bezos first land on the moon?

Current estimate

Jan 2044

0 comments

48 forecasters

By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?

1%chance

2 comments

3 forecasters

When will ≥ 10 operational Golden Dome orbital interceptor satellites be simultaneously in orbit?

Current estimate

Feb 2034

Key Factors

83 comments

115 forecasters

Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA continuously through December 31, 2025?

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?

Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

When will Blue Origin's "New Glenn" rocket complete its first successful test flight?

Will the Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hit the Earth or the Moon before 2033?

When will Jeff Bezos first land on the moon?

By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?

When will ≥ 10 operational Golden Dome orbital interceptor satellites be simultaneously in orbit?

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA continuously through December 31, 2025?

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?

Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

When will Blue Origin's "New Glenn" rocket complete its first successful test flight?

Will the Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hit the Earth or the Moon before 2033?

When will Jeff Bezos first land on the moon?

By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?

When will ≥ 10 operational Golden Dome orbital interceptor satellites be simultaneously in orbit?

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?