Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
8
comments
19
forecasters
Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?
An uncrewed craft
80%
At least one person
40%
At least one person—and return them to Earth
20%
1 other
1
comment
2
forecasters
When will ≥ 10 operational Golden Dome orbital interceptor satellites be simultaneously in orbit?
Current estimate
Dec 2033
5
comments
111
forecasters
Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?
35%
chance
52
comments
243
forecasters
How many people will have ever landed on the Moon before 2030?
Current estimate
16.5 people
1
comment
23
forecasters
Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?
1%
chance
1%
this week
6
comments
8
forecasters
When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?
Current estimate
Jan 2061
2
comments
95
forecasters
Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?
0.1%
chance
0
comments
48
forecasters
By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?
1%
chance
45
comments
379
forecasters
When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?
Current estimate
Jan 2044
81
comments
624
forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
40%
chance
Load More