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When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

23 Aug 2025

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

80%chance

Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?

resultYes

Will ChatGPT-like bots accurately describe their own reward mechanisms before 2025?

Annulled

Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?

resultYes

Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?

resultYes

Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?

resultYes

Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?

resultYes

Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

OpenAI GPT-4, not optionalresult: No
Anthropic AI Claude, not optionalresult: No
OpenAI GPT-4, optionalresult: No
and 3 others

Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?

resultNo