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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Key Factor

New Chinese landing barges

Key Factor

New Chinese landing barges

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Singapore75%
Vietnam70%
Taiwan67%
and 9 others

Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?

resultNo

How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?

result2

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

15%chance

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

80%chance

Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?

Key Factor

1000 warheads expected by 2029

75%chance

Key Factor

1000 warheads expected by 2029

Solar Power: Current Challenges, Encouraging Progress

12
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?

resultNo

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH20%
Amazon Web Services8%
Microsoft Azure7%
and 1 other