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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

17.8%chance

When will the first major tech company offer a university course taught primarily by AI?

04 Apr 2030

How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate?

5result: No
7result: Yes
6result: No
and 5 others

How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?

00

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

00

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

5%chance

When will an AI agent be able to win Portal 2 on its first run?

10 Sep 2028

Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

17%chance

Will the US, UK, China, or any of the countries in the EU enact a universal basic income before 2030?

5%chance