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Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

7
1818 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

15
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0 comments
98 forecasters

Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

93.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
8 forecasters

Will the U.S. government seek to revoke a naturalized citizen's citizenship for post-naturalization conduct in the following years?

0 comments
5 forecasters

In the following years, will any U.S. state or the District of Columbia no longer have a previously existing anti-SLAPP law?

0 comments
90 forecasters

What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-25)

Latest estimate
4.43%

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
5 forecasters

Will the U.S. Senate pass a reconciliation bill with no CBO input on Byrd Rule compliance in the following years?

0 comments
86 forecasters

What will be the value of "CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index" on 2025-09-25?

Latest estimate
18.7 Index

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
85 forecasters

What will be the value of "ICE BofA US Corporate Index Total Return Index Value" on 2025-09-25?

Latest estimate
3579 Index

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
84 forecasters

What will be the value of "ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index Option-Adjusted Spread" on 2025-09-22?

Latest estimate
1.54 Percent

This question is closed for forecasting.