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Launched: The RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge | $10K in Prizes + Opportunities for Students

5
88 comments
RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge
0 comments
99 forecasters

Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?

74%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
100 forecasters

Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?

25%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
98 forecasters

Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule before 1 January 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
93 forecasters

Who will win the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?

Oscar Piastri41.1%
Lando Norris28.6%
Max Verstappen22.6%

This question is closed for forecasting.

4 comments
22 forecasters

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?

Current estimate
Revealed in 9 hours
0 comments
91 forecasters

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

232.3%
126.3%
321.9%

This question is closed for forecasting.

Contributed by the Brown University Forecasting Team community.

0 comments
8 forecasters

Which team will be the first winner of their respective MLB Wild Card round?

Los Angeles Dodgersresult: Yes
Cincinnati Reds0.1%
Boston Red Sox0.1%
5 comments
16 forecasters

Which book will top the New York Times Hardcover Fiction list for the week of November 2, 2025?

The Picasso HeistUpcoming
Remain: A Supernatural Love StoryUpcoming
The IntruderUpcoming
5 comments
74 forecasters

Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?

resultYes