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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Key Factor

New Chinese landing barges

Key Factor

New Chinese landing barges

Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?

Yes, still owned by foreign adversary49%
Yes, non-adversary owner41.8%
No9.2%

Will any country have a Total Fertility Rate below 0.5 before 2053?

75%chance

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

resultNo

[Short Fuse] During the 7 days starting August 7th 2019, will the Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" spike to at least 25% of its all time peak?

resultYes

Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?

resultNo

When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?

resultMore than 31 Aug 2020

Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?

resultNo

If the Chinese police or military intervenes in Hong Kong in September 2019, how many G20 countries will impose economic sanctions on China within a month?

Ambiguous

When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?

Nov 2046