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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

80%chance

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea4%
Saudi Arabia3%
Japan2%
and 6 others

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran66%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
and 7 others

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%
Google5%
Nvidia3%

Will China impose a customs quarantine on Taiwan before the following years?

203550%
203029%

Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?

resultNo

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

60%chance

Reducing Nuclear Risk Through Improved US-China Relations

13
2 comments2
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

Argentinaresult: Yes
Franceresult: No
Brazilresult: No
and 29 others

Will any country have a Total Fertility Rate below 0.5 before 2053?

75%chance