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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?

resultYes

Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?

Inflectionresult: No
Metaresult: No
OpenAIresult: No
and 2 others

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind50%
Microsoft25%
Meta14%
and 14 others

Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?

resultNo

Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?

resultYes

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

resultYes

Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025?

resultYes

Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?

resultYes

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

OpenAIresult: Yes
Anthropicresult: No
Google DeepMindresult: No
and 3 others