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Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%
Google5%
Nvidia3%

Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

Argentinaresult: Yes
Franceresult: No
Brazilresult: No
and 29 others

AI Pathways Report

17
no comments0

Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?

Spainresult: Yes
Englandresult: No
United Statesresult: No
and 29 others

Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

68%chance

How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024?

How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024?

Will Biren or Moore Threads be publicly traded before 2028?

Biren49%
Moore Threads47%

Few Sample Statistics and Forecasting GPT-5

14
3 comments3
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

1%chance