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Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26
8 comments8

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

22%chance

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

34%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: overview

14
5 comments5
Ragnarök Series

Ragnarök Series—results so far

31
34 comments34
Ragnarök Series

How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?

8.31 Tg

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?

49%chance

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

63%chance

If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?

32%chance

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%chance