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Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra5%
OpenAI / GPT-53%

Are We Surprised by AI Milestones?

8
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

23 Aug 2025

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

The case is settled53.2%
OpenAI & Microsoft Win26.7%
NYT Wins ≥$50 Million10%
and 2 others

Human-Level Language Models

36
16 comments16

AI safety and timelines

8
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

Substance is all you need.

2
1 comment1
AI Progress Essay Contest

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
and 2 others

Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?

Inflectionresult: No
Metaresult: No
OpenAIresult: No
and 2 others

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind50%
Microsoft25%
Meta14%
and 14 others