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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Key Factor

New Chinese landing barges

Key Factor

New Chinese landing barges

condition

US Iran War Before 2025?

Resolved:No
48 forecasters
if yes
if no

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

45%
45%
Resolved:Annulled

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

20%
20%
5
1 comment1
Israel-Gaza Conflict

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

51%chance
condition

China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?

12 forecasters
if yes
if no

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

25%
25%

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

40%
40%
1
3 comments3
The Taiwan Tinderbox