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Q1 AI Benchmarking Results: Pros Crush Bots

12
1 comment1
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?

0.3%chance
74.7% this week

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Flexibility of video appearances increases likelihood

20%chance
54% this week

Key Factor

Flexibility of video appearances increases likelihood

Important Updates to Prediction Auto-withdrawal

7
57 comments57

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

94%chance
34% this week

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

35%chance
12% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?

35%chance

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

40%chance
25% this week

Platform feature suggestions

112
2941 comments2941
Metaculus Meta

Will Donald Trump visit China before July 1, 2025?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

10%chance