• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
💎
Metaculus Cup
🇮🇷🇮🇱
Iran-Israel Conflict
⚡
Current events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
💵
Fiscal Showdown
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🏦
Big Beautiful Bill
🗽
State of the Union
⏳
AI 2027
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

00

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Singapore75%
Vietnam70%
Taiwan67%
and 9 others

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance

Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?

resultNo

Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?

resultNo

When will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city?

08 Nov 2029

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

Key Factor

Tesla has a robotaxi fleet in Austin

60%chance

Key Factor

Tesla has a robotaxi fleet in Austin

When will most Americans personally know someone who has dated an AI?

Sep 2032

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26
8 comments8

The FAA to soon open the door to commercial use of unmanned aerial systems?

resultNo