• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
5 comments
44 forecasters

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

74%chance
4% this week
254 comments
1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

25%chance
4% this week

Key Factors

5 comments
56 forecasters

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

1%chance
1 comment
47 forecasters

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

83%chance
12 comments
69 forecasters

At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?

15%chance
10% this week
3 comments
15 forecasters

When will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss?

Current estimate
07 Dec 2028
2 comments
67 forecasters

Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

31%chance
9% this week
15 comments
47 forecasters

What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?

Current estimate
44.1%
0 comments
27 forecasters

Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

47%chance
374 comments
1.7k forecasters

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

1%chance

Key Factors