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How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?

5 comments

55 forecasters

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

1%chance

36 comments

182 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

1%chance

5 comments

44 forecasters

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

74%chance

8 comments

76 forecasters

When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?

Current estimate

>Dec 2040

1 comment

47 forecasters

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

83%chance

254 comments

1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

25%chance

Key Factors

3 comments

15 forecasters

When will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss?

Current estimate

07 Dec 2028

19 comments

32 forecasters

What will be the average annual number of measles cases in the US from 2025 through 2030?

Current estimate

708 cases

4 comments

15 forecasters

How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

When will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss?

What will be the average annual number of measles cases in the US from 2025 through 2030?

How many deaths from Tuberculosis will occur globally in the following years?

How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

When will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss?

What will be the average annual number of measles cases in the US from 2025 through 2030?

How many deaths from Tuberculosis will occur globally in the following years?