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373
comments
1.8k
forecasters
Will humans go extinct before 2100?
1%
chance
14
comments
27
forecasters
How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?
Current estimate
1.12 logMAR
5
comments
56
forecasters
Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?
1%
chance
8
comments
74
forecasters
How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?
Current estimate
35.5k deaths
251
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
29%
chance
5
comments
45
forecasters
Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?
74%
chance
1
comment
47
forecasters
Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?
83%
chance
54
comments
283
forecasters
Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?
52%
chance
3
comments
15
forecasters
When will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss?
Current estimate
07 Dec 2028
0
comments
27
forecasters
Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?
47%
chance
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