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5
comments
44
forecasters
Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?
74%
chance
4%
this week
254
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
25%
chance
4%
this week
Key Factors
Alzheimer's hampers developments in radical life extension
Life expectancy for the longest-lived populations has been growing more or less linearly since the 1840s.
Genetics restricts lifespan for large population subset
5
comments
56
forecasters
Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?
1%
chance
1
comment
47
forecasters
Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?
83%
chance
12
comments
69
forecasters
At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?
15%
chance
10%
this week
3
comments
15
forecasters
When will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss?
Current estimate
07 Dec 2028
2
comments
67
forecasters
Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?
31%
chance
9%
this week
15
comments
47
forecasters
What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?
Current estimate
44.1%
0
comments
27
forecasters
Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?
47%
chance
374
comments
1.7k
forecasters
Will humans go extinct before 2100?
1%
chance
Key Factors
Possibility of AI smarter than humans, with goal of wiping out humans
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