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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

5%chance

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

7
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Biosecurity Tournament Hidden Period Over

14
no comments0
Biosecurity Tournament

Announcing the Biosecurity Forecasting Tournament

no comments0

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

31.2%chance

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

Sep 2045

What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?

Pandemic Metaculus and new moderators

7
7 comments7
Metaculus Meta

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

30%chance