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The State of Metaculus
13
35 comments
35
Fall 2020 Metaculus Moderator Election
11
25 comments
25
Metaculus Meta
Community Trader Election
11
23 comments
23
Trade Signal Tournament
Platform update thread
14
102 comments
102
Metaculus Meta
Will the UK House of Commons be elected by proportional representation before 2030?
3%
57 forecasters
9
9 comments
9
Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?
Resolved :
No
40%
119 forecasters
17
52 comments
52
20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest
How many parties will be in the next German parliament?
5 or fewer
?
6
?
7
?
2 others
Revealed
in 5 days
17
40 comments
40
Bridgewater Forecasting Contest
What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?
716
47 forecasters
6
12 comments
12
๐ Quarterly Cup ๐
Will either major party candidate in Californiaโs 13th Congressional District concede the election before December 1, 2024?
Resolved :
No
30%
32 forecasters
71 comments
71
Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?
Mark Carney
98.9%
Chrystia Freeland
1%
Someone else
0.1%
4
30 comments
30
Bridgewater Forecasting Contest
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