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condition

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

15 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

77%
77%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

30%
30%
2
3 comments3
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Contributed by the Odborný Predikční Tým community.

What is the probability that a state of emergency, a state of danger, and a state of threat to the state will be declared in the Czech Republic by the end of 2025?

State of emergency9%
Danger status25%
State of emergency0.5%

What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on January 1, 2030 in trillions USD?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

3.47
trillion USD

Will the word "tariff(s)" disappear from the front print pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal by June 1, 2025?

resultNo

In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in Peano arithmetic?

75.7

When will one TeraFLOP/s cost <$1?

01 May 2030

In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in ZFC set theory?

81.8

What will be the best proven lower bound on the infimum of S in 2120?

0.504

Computability and Complexity

16
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will a prediction market outperform Nate Silver's forecasts for the Super Tuesday primaries?

resultYes