• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
24 comments
93 forecasters

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

10 comments
32 forecasters

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Annulled
19 comments
69 forecasters

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

3 comments
25 forecasters

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

Current estimate
4.2×10²⁵ FLOP
15 comments
43 forecasters

How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?

community
1.3×10²⁵
result
2.1×10²⁵
3 comments
7 forecasters

Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

Current estimate
3.7×10²⁹ FLOP
3 comments

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

Year: 2026 FLOPs: 10e26Upcoming
Year: 2040 FLOPs: 10e32Upcoming
Year: 2032 FLOPs: 10e30Upcoming
condition

Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

Resolved:Yes
6 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

19 Apr 2026

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

23 Nov 2025
Resolved:Annulled
4
0 comments
6
6 forecasters
44 comments
127 forecasters

What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?

Current estimate
9.9×10¹⁶ FLOPS