What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?182424 comments9797 forecasters
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?1.6×10²⁵ FLOP (<1×10²⁴ - 1.2×10²⁶)33 comments2929 forecasters1.6×10²⁵ FLOP (<1×10²⁴ - 1.2×10²⁶)
What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?73232 comments7777 forecasters
Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?90% chance51010 comments3232 forecastersAnnulled
What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?92020 comments7373 forecasters
Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?444 comments22 forecasters
How many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run before the first year in which gross world product exceeds 30% of its peak?1.9×10³⁰ FLOP (2.8×10²⁸ - 1.5×10³⁴)933 comments99 forecasters1.9×10³⁰ FLOP (2.8×10²⁸ - 1.5×10³⁴)
What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?1.4×10¹⁷ FLOPS (583T - 3.4×10¹⁹)414444 comments127127 forecasters1.4×10¹⁷ FLOPS (583T - 3.4×10¹⁹)