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What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

11.6

When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?

result28 May 2024 12:00

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Annulled

How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?

result2.1×10²⁵

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

1.5×10²⁹
FLOP

What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?

1.2×10¹⁷
FLOPS