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24
comments
93
forecasters
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?
10
comments
32
forecasters
Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?
Annulled
19
comments
69
forecasters
What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?
3
comments
25
forecasters
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
Current estimate
4.2×10²⁵ FLOP
15
comments
43
forecasters
How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?
community
1.3×10²⁵
result
2.1×10²⁵
3
comments
7
forecasters
Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?
Current estimate
3.7×10²⁹ FLOP
3
comments
Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?
Year: 2026 FLOPs: 10e26
Upcoming
Year: 2040 FLOPs: 10e32
Upcoming
Year: 2032 FLOPs: 10e30
Upcoming
2 others
condition
Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
Resolved:
Yes
6
forecasters
if yes
if no
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
19 Apr 2026
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
23 Nov 2025
Resolved:
Annulled
4
0
comments
6
6
forecasters
44
comments
127
forecasters
What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?
Current estimate
9.9×10¹⁶ FLOPS