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3
comments
7
forecasters
Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?
Current estimate
3.7×10²⁹ FLOP
24
comments
90
forecasters
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?
4
comments
14
forecasters
How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?
Latest estimate
11.6
This question is closed for forecasting.
3
comments
24
forecasters
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
Current estimate
2.8×10²⁵ FLOP
10
comments
32
forecasters
Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?
Annulled
19
comments
69
forecasters
What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?
15
comments
43
forecasters
How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?
community
1.3×10²⁵
result
2.1×10²⁵
4
comments
2
forecasters
Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?
2025
result:
No
2027
result:
Yes
2030
result:
Yes
3 others
44
comments
127
forecasters
What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?
Current estimate
1.3×10¹⁷ FLOPS