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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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Will France's V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index fall below 0.80 for 2026 or 2027?

50% chance

33 comments
3
3 forecasters
50%chance

What will the total enacted U.S. foreign aid appropriations be for FY2028, conditional on control of Congress?

0 comments
17
17 forecasters

What will the Japan Economy Watchers Current Index be in the August release?

0 comments
130
130 forecasters

Will Ukraine's inflation rate decrease to below 8.0% for July 2026?

35% chance

0 comments
135
135 forecasters
35%chance

What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on July 14, 2026?

6% (4.7 - 7.2)

0 comments
128
128 forecasters
6%
(4.7 - 7.2)

What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?

0.839 HDI (0.724 - 0.87)

13
77 comments
38
38 forecasters
0.839 HDI
(0.724 - 0.87)

How many foreign visitors will fly to the United States in June 2026?

4.71M passengers (4.32M - 5.23M)

0 comments
119
119 forecasters
4.71M passengers
(4.32M - 5.23M)

Will Senegal formally restructure its external debt before 2028?

63% chance

11 comment
3
3 forecasters
63%chance

How much in digital advertising revenues will the New York Times Company report in its Q2 2026 earnings release?

114M $ (110M - 118M)

0 comments
118
118 forecasters
114M $
(110M - 118M)

How many subscribers will the New York Times Company report in its Q2 2026 earnings release?

13.3M subscribers (13.2M - 13.4M)

0 comments
120
120 forecasters
13.3M subscribers
(13.2M - 13.4M)

What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)

4.51 pp (4.33 - 4.7)

103103 comments
107
107 forecasters
Resolved4.4 pp

How many visitor arrivals will the government of Fiji report for June 2026?

92.3k visitors (86.5k - 97.6k)

0 comments
115
115 forecasters
92.3k visitors
(86.5k - 97.6k)

How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in July 2026?

0 comments
2
2 forecasters

What will be the compound annual growth rate percentage of Chinese GDP (PPP) from 2022 to 2032?

2.17% (<-4 - 4.78)

7
33 comments
13
13 forecasters
2.17%
(<-4 - 4.78)

What will the 10-year U.S. Treasury constant maturity yield be on June 25, 2026?

4.46 value (4.34 - 4.6)

11 comment
88
88 forecasters
Resolved4.4 value

What will the Tokyo core CPI (excluding fresh food) year-on-year inflation rate be for June 2026?

1.3 value (1.1 - 1.6)

11 comment
84
84 forecasters
Resolved1.6 value

Which month will have the highest officially reported TSMC consolidated net revenue among May, June, and July 2026?

0 comments
114
114 forecasters

What will be the rise in average hourly earnings for all employees on U.S. private nonfarm payrolls from June 2026 to July 2026?

0.12 $ (0.08 - 0.16)

0 comments
107
107 forecasters
0.12 $
(0.08 - 0.16)

Will QatarEnergy restore full LNG production capacity before 2027?

19% chance

1
33 comments
8
8 forecasters
19%chance

What approval rating will Gallup Korea report for President Lee Jae-myung in the Daily Opinion released July 10, 2026?

49 value (46 - 52)

0 comments
107
107 forecasters
49 value
(46 - 52)

What will the unemployment rate among new graduates be in the following years?

1
1010 comments
36
36 forecasters

What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026?

1919 comments
59
59 forecasters