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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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Will the CPSC publish any computer-related recalls in July or August 2026?

35% chance

0 comments
137
137 forecasters
35%chance

How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for June 2026?

11.4k encounters (9204 - 14k)

0 comments
117
117 forecasters
11.4k encounters
(9204 - 14k)

How many foreign visitors will fly to the United States in July 2026?

5.14M passengers (4.65M - 5.65M)

0 comments
116
116 forecasters
5.14M passengers
(4.65M - 5.65M)

What will the Japan Economy Watchers Current Index be in the August release?

0 comments
130
130 forecasters

Will Ukraine's inflation rate decrease to below 8.0% for July 2026?

35% chance

0 comments
135
135 forecasters
35%chance

What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on July 14, 2026?

38.7% (36.6 - 40.5)

0 comments
124
124 forecasters
38.7%
(36.6 - 40.5)

What percentage of votes will Hakainde Hichilema receive in the first round of Zambia's 2026 presidential elections?

57.5% (53.7 - 61.2)

-1
0 comments
60
60 forecasters
57.5%
(53.7 - 61.2)

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before September 1, 2026?

5% chance

1
0 comments
12
12 forecasters
5%chance

Will the S&P 500 close at or above 8,000 on December 31, 2026?

60% chance

1
11 comment
15
15 forecasters
60%chance

How many foreign visitors will fly to the United States in June 2026?

4.71M passengers (4.32M - 5.23M)

0 comments
119
119 forecasters
4.71M passengers
(4.32M - 5.23M)

Which of BTC, ETH, BNB, and XRP will have the highest 7-day percentage price gain over the week ending June 28, 2026?

9494 comments
95
95 forecasters

What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)

3.23 pp (2.8 - 4.18)

104104 comments
110
110 forecasters
Resolved2.83 pp

What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)

4.51 pp (4.33 - 4.7)

103103 comments
107
107 forecasters
Resolved4.4 pp

Will Bitcoin's daily closing price fall below $56,000 on any day from July 9โ€“11, 2026?

38% chance

0 comments
119
119 forecasters
38%chance

Will any nationwide Spanish vote-intention poll with fieldwork in June 13-27, 2026 show a PP lead over PSOE of 9 points or more?

result: no

11 comment
99
99 forecasters
ResolvedNo

How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in July 2026?

0 comments
2
2 forecasters

Will July 2026 be the warmest July on record, according to Copernicus?

35% chance

0 comments
121
121 forecasters
35%chance

Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above its $160.95 IPO-day close on June 26, 2026?

result: no

11 comment
102
102 forecasters
ResolvedNo

What will be the compound annual growth rate percentage of Chinese GDP (PPP) from 2022 to 2032?

2.17% (<-4 - 4.78)

7
33 comments
13
13 forecasters
2.17%
(<-4 - 4.78)

How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)

0.371 pp (-1.04 - 1.68)

105105 comments
109
109 forecasters
Resolved-0.543 pp

How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)

-0.118 pp (-3.15 - 2.8)

104104 comments
108
108 forecasters
Resolved-2.369 pp

How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)

0.835 pp (-4.08 - 5.63)

103103 comments
107
107 forecasters
Resolved-3.65 pp