Will Reykjavík, Iceland have a clear view of the total eclipse of the Sun on August 12, 2026?result: no22 comments1010 forecastersResolvedNo
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40173173 comments281281 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242323 comments332332 forecasters30%chance
Will Iceland be ranked the most peaceful country in the world during each year of 2026 - 2029?33 comments1010 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?30% chance374444 comments471471 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?7% chance181717 comments198198 forecasters7%chance
Will all of these New England comic con events be held during 2026?94.6% chance-21616 comments1313 forecasters94.6%chance
If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?Feb 2039 (20 Apr 2031 - Jan 2057)351919 comments165165 forecastersFeb 2039 (20 Apr 2031 - Jan 2057)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?30% chance281515 comments285285 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?1% chance51818 comments2525 forecasters1%chance
If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?5% chance60 comments5252 forecasters5%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due "other risks"?20% chance399 comments3232 forecasters20%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?26.5% chance633 comments3636 forecasters26.5%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?9% chance999 comments7777 forecasters9%chance
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?21% chance91616 comments4545 forecasters21%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?50% chance655 comments8787 forecasters50%chance
If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?1006 years (400 - >3000)51313 comments5757 forecasters1006 years (400 - >3000)
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?7% chance1322 comments166166 forecasters7%chance