Will Reykjavík, Iceland have a clear view of the total eclipse of the Sun on August 12, 2026?result: no22 comments1010 forecastersResolvedNo
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242323 comments333333 forecasters30%chance
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40173173 comments281281 forecasters
Will Iceland be ranked the most peaceful country in the world during each year of 2026 - 2029?33 comments1010 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?7% chance181717 comments198198 forecasters7%chance
Will all of these New England comic con events be held during 2026?95% chance-21616 comments1313 forecasters95%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?28% chance374444 comments471471 forecasters28%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?30% chance281515 comments285285 forecasters30%chance
If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?Jul 2038 (02 Feb 2031 - Mar 2056)351919 comments165165 forecastersJul 2038 (02 Feb 2031 - Mar 2056)
Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?1% chance51818 comments2525 forecasters1%chance
If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?5% chance60 comments5252 forecasters5%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due "other risks"?20% chance399 comments3232 forecasters20%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?26.5% chance633 comments3636 forecasters26.5%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?9% chance999 comments7777 forecasters9%chance
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?21% chance91616 comments4545 forecasters21%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?50% chance655 comments8787 forecasters50%chance
If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?1006 years (400 - >3000)51313 comments5757 forecasters1006 years (400 - >3000)
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?7% chance1322 comments166166 forecasters7%chance