If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?Apr 2037 (13 Sep 2030 - May 2053)341919 comments165165 forecastersApr 2037 (13 Sep 2030 - May 2053)
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?27% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters27%chance
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?39172172 comments275275 forecasters
If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?7% chance60 comments5252 forecasters7%chance
Will all of these New England comic con events be held during 2026?83% chance-21616 comments1717 forecasters83%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22% chance332727 comments229229 forecasters22%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?50% chance655 comments8888 forecasters50%chance
Will Iceland be ranked the most peaceful country in the world during each year of 2026 - 2029?111 comment99 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?30% chance281515 comments287287 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?2% chance1299 comments187187 forecasters2%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?1% chance777 comments199199 forecasters1%chance
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?39% chance602323 comments424424 forecasters39%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?1% chance51818 comments2626 forecasters1%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due "other risks"?20% chance399 comments3333 forecasters20%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?25% chance633 comments3737 forecasters25%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?9% chance999 comments7878 forecasters9%chance
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?21% chance91616 comments4646 forecasters21%chance
If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?1122 years (424 - >3000)51313 comments5757 forecasters1122 years (424 - >3000)