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44 comments
422 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

25%chance
5% this week
16 comments
44 forecasters

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

21%chance
8% this week
20 comments
287 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

25%chance

Q&A — Get help here from the Metaculus team

-1
0 comments
A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance
52 comments
279 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10%chance
7 comments
192 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

1%chance

Metaculus meta questions

7
5454 comments
Metaculus Meta
15 comments
281 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29.2%chance
21 comments
404 forecasters

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

33%chance
5 comments
82 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

49%chance