Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45222222 comments331331 forecasters
Will Reykjavík, Iceland have a clear view of the total eclipse of the Sun on August 12, 2026?result: no22 comments1010 forecastersResolvedNo
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?23.9% chance633 comments3737 forecasters23.9%chance
If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?25% chance262626 comments343343 forecasters25%chance
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?40% chance612323 comments431431 forecasters40%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?44% chance384646 comments479479 forecasters44%chance
Will Iceland be ranked the most peaceful country in the world during each year of 2026 - 2029?33 comments1010 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?29.2% chance301515 comments285285 forecasters29.2%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance355252 comments294294 forecasters10%chance
Will all of these New England comic con events be held during 2026?95% chance-21616 comments1616 forecasters95%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?25% chance342727 comments231231 forecasters25%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?50% chance655 comments8888 forecasters50%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?1% chance51818 comments2525 forecasters1%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due "other risks"?20% chance399 comments3232 forecasters20%chance
If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?1006 years (400 - >3000)51313 comments5757 forecasters1006 years (400 - >3000)
If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?Apr 2037 (02 Aug 2030 - Jul 2053)351919 comments166166 forecastersApr 2037 (02 Aug 2030 - Jul 2053)
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?7% chance1322 comments166166 forecasters7%chance