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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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Will the CPSC publish any computer-related recalls in July or August 2026?

35% chance

0 comments
137
137 forecasters
35%chance

How many barrels of oil will be in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at the end of the second week of August 2026?

308k thousand barrels (<300k - 339k)

0 comments
123
123 forecasters
308k thousand barrels
(<300k - 339k)

How many mass shootings will the U.S. experience in July 2026?

0 comments
130
130 forecasters

How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for June 2026?

11.4k encounters (9204 - 14k)

0 comments
117
117 forecasters
11.4k encounters
(9204 - 14k)

How many foreign visitors will fly to the United States in July 2026?

5.14M passengers (4.65M - 5.65M)

0 comments
116
116 forecasters
5.14M passengers
(4.65M - 5.65M)

What will the Japan Economy Watchers Current Index be in the August release?

0 comments
130
130 forecasters

How many foreign visitors will fly to the United States in June 2026?

4.71M passengers (4.32M - 5.23M)

0 comments
119
119 forecasters
4.71M passengers
(4.32M - 5.23M)

Will Ukraine's inflation rate decrease to below 8.0% for July 2026?

35% chance

0 comments
135
135 forecasters
35%chance

What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on July 14, 2026?

38.7% (36.6 - 40.5)

0 comments
124
124 forecasters
38.7%
(36.6 - 40.5)

What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on July 14, 2026?

6% (4.7 - 7.2)

0 comments
128
128 forecasters
6%
(4.7 - 7.2)

Will Virgin Galactic have a "Going Concern" substantial doubt statement in its 10-Q SEC filing for Q2 2026?

80% chance

0 comments
6
6 forecasters
80%chance

Will the S&P 500 close at or above 8,000 on December 31, 2026?

60% chance

1
11 comment
15
15 forecasters
60%chance

How much in digital advertising revenues will the New York Times Company report in its Q2 2026 earnings release?

114M $ (110M - 118M)

0 comments
118
118 forecasters
114M $
(110M - 118M)

How many software development jobs will be posted on Upwork on July 1, 2026?

24.7k jobs (23.5k - 25.5k)

1
66 comments
8
8 forecasters
Resolved23.973k jobs

What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)

3.23 pp (2.8 - 4.18)

104104 comments
110
110 forecasters
Resolved2.83 pp

What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)

4.51 pp (4.33 - 4.7)

103103 comments
107
107 forecasters
Resolved4.4 pp

How many visitor arrivals will the government of Fiji report for June 2026?

92.3k visitors (86.5k - 97.6k)

0 comments
115
115 forecasters
92.3k visitors
(86.5k - 97.6k)

How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in July 2026?

0 comments
2
2 forecasters

How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)

0.371 pp (-1.04 - 1.68)

105105 comments
109
109 forecasters
Resolved-0.543 pp

How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)

0.284 pp (-6.38 - 7.23)

104104 comments
110
110 forecasters
Resolved-17.99 pp

What will the most recent EIA daily Brent crude spot price be when checked in late June 2026?

84 value (76.4 - 94.2)

11 comment
83
83 forecasters
Resolved76.49 value

Will the FAO Food Price Index reach a new yearly high for July 2026?

0 comments
5
5 forecasters
%chance