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0 comments
100 forecasters

Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds compete in the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?

65%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

12 comments
255 forecasters

Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?

resultNo
1 comment
14 forecasters

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Latest estimate
2048

This question is closed for forecasting.

13 comments
118 forecasters

Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

> 50 km^2Ambiguous
< 50 km^2result: No
523 comments
1.6k forecasters

Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?

resultNo

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and (Sort Of) Love Nuclear Forecasting

21
11 comment
Metaculus Journal Archives
9 comments
33 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due "other risks"?

20.6%chance