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0
comments
100
forecasters
Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds compete in the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?
65%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
12
comments
255
forecasters
Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?
result
No
1
comment
14
forecasters
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Latest estimate
2048
This question is closed for forecasting.
13
comments
118
forecasters
Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?
> 50 km^2
Ambiguous
< 50 km^2
result:
No
523
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?
result
No
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and (Sort Of) Love Nuclear Forecasting
21
1
1
comment
Metaculus Journal Archives
9
comments
33
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due "other risks"?
20.6%
chance