0 comments
86 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-09-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
33%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
88 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 85.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?"?
resultNo
89 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question "Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?"?
resultYes
85 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 52.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question "Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?"?
resultNo
0 comments
107 forecasters
[PRACTICE] What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?
Latest estimate
34.3%
This question is closed for forecasting.
14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
0 comments
6 forecasters