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95 comments
96 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-11-08 for the Metaculus question "Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?"?

resultNo
6 comments
1 forecaster

Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?

Current estimate
Revealed in 2 days
0 comments
106 forecasters

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

97 comments
97 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?

resultNo
96 comments
96 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 82.00% on 2025-11-05 for the Metaculus question "Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?"?

resultNo
96 comments
96 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 7.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?"?

resultNo
1 comment
2 forecasters

Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters before 2027?

49%chance
39% this week
3 comments
1 forecaster

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

70%chance
0 comments
107 forecasters

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments
5 forecasters

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

7%chance
8% this week