0 comments
107 forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
15%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
96 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 7.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?"?
34.8%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
96 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 82.00% on 2025-11-05 for the Metaculus question "Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?"?
40%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
97 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
32%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
95 comments
95 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
resultNo
0 comments
107 forecasters
Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?
12%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
95 comments
91 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 11.00% on 2025-10-24 for the Metaculus question "Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?"?
resultNo
0 comments
106 forecasters
Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?
5%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
3 comments
58 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet32.7%
OpenAI23.2%
Anthropic18%