Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
105
107
forecasters
105 comments
107 forecasters
Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
Follow
share
embed
Resolved
No
Timeline
Histogram
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (105)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
6 comments
97 forecasters
Will OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet CEO pledge AI autonomy limits before 2027?
10%
chance
5 comments
78 forecasters
Who will develop the first AGI?
Alphabet
33.1%
Anthropic
26.4%
OpenAI
21.6%
Other
10.5%
2 others
1 comment
78 forecasters
5Y after AGI, AI company dominates economy?
5%
chance
6 comments
60 forecasters
When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be publicly available?
Current estimate
26 Dec 2027
12 comments
129 forecasters
Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?
56%
chance
653 comments
1.9k forecasters
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
Current estimate
Dec 2032
21 comments
110 forecasters
US-China AGI-limiting treaty signed before 2030?
5%
chance
20 comments
65 forecasters
5Y after AGI, AI company military power?
5%
chance