4 comments
3 forecasters
How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?
Current estimate
2.28%
97 comments
97 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
resultNo
0 comments
33 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH30%
Google Cloud16%
Microsoft Azure13%
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
54 comments
163 forecasters
Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?
resultYes
39 comments
64 forecasters
What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?
18 comments
80 forecasters
Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?
1%chance
1% this week
Key Factors