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We're Hiring: Product, Engineering, Communications & Consulting Roles at Metaculus

5
11 comment
2 comments
22 forecasters

When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Prizes inside)

Current estimate
02 Nov 2025

🏆 Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3 Winners and Recap

3
0 comments
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3
3 comments
2 forecasters

When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?

Current estimate
Revealed in 3 days
0 comments
95 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Platform feature suggestions

113
3.1k3.1k comments
Metaculus Meta
1 comment
13 forecasters

Will the US stock market crash by more than 10% in any 5-day trading period before January 1, 2027?

50%chance
29% this week
2 comments
16 forecasters

Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?

45%chance
28% this week

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments
9 forecasters

What percentage of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
0.543%
7 comments
47 forecasters

Which book will top the New York Times Hardcover Fiction list for the week of November 2, 2025?

Other51.7%
Remain: A Supernatural Love Story13.8%
The Secret of Secrets11.8%