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97 comments
97 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?

resultNo

Contributed by the Unjournal Forecasting community.

0 comments

Median prob. among Unjournal experts: โ€œIf the price of the... hamburger-imitating plant products fell by 10% ... how many more/fewer chickens consumed globally in 2030 (+/- percent)?

Current estimate
Revealed in 3 days

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113
3.1k3.1k comments
Metaculus Meta

Contributed by the Unjournal Forecasting community.

0 comments

Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "the average production cost of cultured (chicken) per kg" by 2051

Current estimate
3 comments
41 forecasters

What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025?

condition

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

13 forecasters
if yes
if no

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

50%
50%

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

19%
19%
1
0 comments
13
13 forecasters
The Taiwan Tinderbox
0 comments
32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%
Google Cloud12%
Amazon Web Services11%

Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

6
0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
96 comments
183 forecasters

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Current estimate
Sep 2031
14 comments
31 forecasters

On how many days in the following years will China carry out โ€œreactionaryโ€ air incursions into Taiwanโ€™s air defense identification zone?