Will a CDC Epi-Aid investigation of Pennsylvania's measles outbreak be underway as of October 1, 2026?result: no172172 comments179179 forecastersResolvedNo
How many cumulative confirmed New World screwworm animal cases in the US will APHIS report as of October 1, 2026?53 cases (51 - 55)161161 comments166166 forecastersResolved51 cases
Will a Cognitive-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?25% chance99 comments33 forecasters25%chance
What will WastewaterSCAN's national norovirus (GII) level category be on October 15, 2026?0 comments233233 forecasters
Will a Cyber-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?70% chance55 comments33 forecasters70%chance
Will an Electromagnetic spectrum-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance33 comments33 forecasters20%chance
Will a Maritime-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?26% chance22 comments22 forecasters26%chance
Will a Cognitive-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?50% chance11 comment11 forecaster50%chance
Will an Intelligence-domain AMO be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance11 comment11 forecaster20%chance
Will a Protection-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?40% chance44 comments11 forecaster40%chance
Will an Intelligence-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?5% chance11 comment11 forecaster5%chance
Will an Information effects-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?10% chance11 comment11 forecaster10%chance
What proportion of influenza A will be H1N1 during the 2026/27 influenza season?62.3% (34.9 - 83.5)188 comments99 forecasters62.3% (34.9 - 83.5)
How many locally acquired Chikungunya cases will be reported in the European Economic Area in 2026?196 cases (169 - 231)11111 comments1010 forecasters196 cases (169 - 231)
Will the WHO declare an H5 virus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2028?6% chance166 comments1515 forecasters6%chance
Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?11111 comments115115 forecasters
When will weekly new hospital admissions peak across respiratory illnesses in the 2026/27 season?02 Jan 2027 (23 Dec 2026 - 17 Jan 2027)21010 comments1010 forecasters02 Jan 2027 (23 Dec 2026 - 17 Jan 2027)
Will WHO or Africa CDC report more than 10,000 people vaccinated with Ervebo in the 2026 DRC Bundibugyo Ebola response before September 4, 2026?result: no151151 comments146146 forecastersResolvedNo
Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.322 comments
How many domestically acquired, laboratory-confirmed cyclosporiasis cases will CDC's 2026 surveillance report show?18.8k cases (17.4k - 20.8k)146146 comments150150 forecastersResolved18.44k cases
How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2027?49.8 cases (21.5 - 106)266 comments1414 forecasters49.8 cases (21.5 - 106)