Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?65% chance855 comments2222 forecasters65%chance
Will the United States report any locally acquired New World screwworm infestation (in a human or an animal) before 2027?result: yes31313 comments3131 forecastersResolvedYes
How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2026?31.2 animal cases (11.8 - 81)122 comments44 forecasters31.2 animal cases (11.8 - 81)
How many laboratory-confirmed Ebola (Bundibugyo virus) cases will WHO report in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by September 1, 2026?648 cases (365 - 1083)0 comments4646 forecasters648 cases (365 - 1083)
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
What will the WastewaterSCAN national wastewater category for Norovirus GII be for the week ending June 13, 2026?0 comments3838 forecasters
Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027?10% chance199 comments6060 forecasters10%chance
Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027?9.5% chance-166 comments9494 forecastersAnnulled
Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?1% chance35252 comments204204 forecasters1%chance
Will there be any avian influenza human cases in China reported by the WHO before April 1, 2026?result: no104104 comments101101 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the WHO Director-General declare a PHEIC for H5N1 before May 1, 2026?result: no111111 comments110110 forecastersResolvedNo
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?0.7% chance51818 comments104104 forecasters0.7%chance
When will Google first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN uplift level 1?22 Nov 2030 (27 May 2029 - Dec 2031)0 comments99 forecasters22 Nov 2030 (27 May 2029 - Dec 2031)
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?70% chance66 comments2626 forecasters70%chance
Will the interest in “drug resistant salmonella outbreak” change between 2026-05-04 and 2026-05-15 according to Google Trends?9494 comments9292 forecasters
Will The USDA Release A Gene Drive To Deal With An Agricultural Pest Before Jan 1, 2029?18% chance0 comments55 forecasters18%chance
How many Clade I Mpox cases will have been reported in the US before 2027?39 cases (30 - 50)1111 comments1515 forecasters39 cases (30 - 50)
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?result: yes274141 comments143143 forecastersResolvedYes
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?27% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters27%chance
Will WHO publish at least one new Disease Outbreak News item about cholera or acute watery diarrhoea before April 30, 2026?result: no120120 comments121121 forecastersResolvedNo
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?99% chance231313 comments141141 forecasters99%chance