Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

❓

Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?

resultYes

4 comments

15 forecasters

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

RSV3.59

Flu10

COVID-194.13

2 comments

15 forecasters

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

Current estimate

Aug 2033

9 comments

54 forecasters

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

3%chance

2% this week

13 comments

55 forecasters

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

Current estimate

111k deaths/year

23 comments

52 forecasters

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

Current estimate

84.2 cases

condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters

if yes

if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.646

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.957

10 10 comments

21 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Sharpen the Respiratory Outlook for 2025/26

0 comments

Respiratory Outlook 2025/26

condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

13%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7 7 comments

24 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

87 comments

78 forecasters

Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?

resultNo