Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?11 comment33 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC40 comments
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?6% chance51010 comments5656 forecasters6%chance
Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?result: no58113113 comments589589 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?result: no1344 comments131131 forecastersResolvedNo
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?0.1% chance52020 comments105105 forecasters0.1%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22.8% chance332727 comments228228 forecasters22.8%chance
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?5% chance31212 comments2323 forecasters5%chance
Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?result: no2977 comments132132 forecastersResolvedNo
Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?result: no288 comments3030 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?result: no455 comments155155 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?result: no322 comments6666 forecastersResolvedNo
Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?result: no241010 comments100100 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?result: no1211 comment8181 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?77 comments2525 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?7% chance1322 comments166166 forecasters7%chance