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US Democracy Index

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Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

2 comments

61 forecasters

Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

40%chance

19% this week

9 comments

17 forecasters

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

RSV3.5

Flu9.78

COVID-194.08

13 comments

18 forecasters

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

9 comments

29 forecasters

When will the next Public Health Emergency of International Concern be declared by the WHO?

community

04 Oct 2022

result

23 Jul 2022 10:11

31 comments

18 forecasters

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season?

46 comments

18 forecasters

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season?

Combinedresult: 20.9

Fluresult: 8.9

COVID-19result: 7.7

36 comments

224 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

2%chance

24 comments

22 forecasters

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season?

34 comments

26 forecasters

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season?

Combinedresult: 19.4 per 100k

Fluresult: 13.6 per 100k

COVID-19result: 4.2 per 100k