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Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

0 comments

Respiratory Outlook 2025/26

10 comments

9 forecasters

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

15%chance

36 comments

182 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

1%chance

1% this week

condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7 7 comments

24 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters

if yes

if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.614

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.951

10 10 comments

21 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

52 comments

44 forecasters

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

community

1.32

result

Annulled

9 comments

76 forecasters

Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?

resultNo

2 comments

68 forecasters

Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

31%chance

10 comments

100 forecasters

Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?

resultNo

2 comments

4 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?

Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?

When will these diseases be eradicated according to the WHO?

Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?

Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?

When will these diseases be eradicated according to the WHO?