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2
comments
56
forecasters
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
62%
chance
3
comments
59
forecasters
What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?
36
comments
206
forecasters
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
4%
chance
condition
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
21
forecasters
if yes
if no
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
0.646
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
0.957
10
10
comments
21
21
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
condition
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
24
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
13%
13%
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
0%
0%
7
7
comments
24
24
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
52
comments
44
forecasters
If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
community
1.32
result
Annulled
Sharpen the Respiratory Outlook for 2025/26
0
comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
87
comments
78
forecasters
Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?
result
No
10
comments
100
forecasters
Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?
result
No
52
comments
29
forecasters
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?
Ambiguous
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