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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
2 comments
56 forecasters

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

62%chance
3 comments
59 forecasters

What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?

36 comments
206 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

4%chance
condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters
if yes
if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.646

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.957
1010 comments
21
21 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

13%
13%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
77 comments
24
24 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
52 comments
44 forecasters

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

community
1.32
result
Annulled

Sharpen the Respiratory Outlook for 2025/26

0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
87 comments
78 forecasters

Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?

resultNo
10 comments
100 forecasters

Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?

resultNo
52 comments
29 forecasters

Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?

Ambiguous