Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?70% chance855 comments1919 forecasters70%chance
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027?10% chance199 comments6060 forecasters10%chance
Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?1% chance35151 comments204204 forecasters1%chance
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?1% chance51818 comments104104 forecasters1%chance
Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?result: yes274141 comments143143 forecastersResolvedYes
Will WHO publish at least one new Disease Outbreak News item about cholera or acute watery diarrhoea before April 30, 2026?result: no120120 comments121121 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026?result: yes51717 comments763763 forecastersResolvedYes
Will CDC report at least one newly identified human infection with a novel influenza A virus in the United States before May 1, 2026?result: no121121 comments122122 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?25% chance288 comments3636 forecasters25%chance
Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?2121 comments1919 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook April Update: Measles Surge Slows as Flu Season Ends with Likely Moderate Severity50 comments
How many human infections of monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?104k (80.3k - 160k)377979 comments218218 forecasters104k (80.3k - 160k)
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?77 comments2525 forecasters
How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?8967 (2609 - 34.2k)744 comments4242 forecasters8967 (2609 - 34.2k)
Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?result: no499 comments3939 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?result: no5555 comments3232 forecastersResolvedNo
How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?848k (376k - 2.15M)51212 comments5151 forecasters848k (376k - 2.15M)
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?5% chance31212 comments2525 forecasters5%chance
What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in New York as of August 31, 2022?3404 (3271 - 3592)444 comments3333 forecasters3404 (3271 - 3592)
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? → If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?1010 comments2121 forecasters
When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?03 Aug 2021 (16 Jun 2021 - 28 Sep 2021)101212 comments5050 forecasters03 Aug 2021 (16 Jun 2021 - 28 Sep 2021)