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Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

6
0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
10 comments
8 forecasters

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

15%chance
10 comments
17 forecasters

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

RSV3.49
Flu9.81
COVID-193.86
8 comments
74 forecasters

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

Current estimate
36k deaths
13 comments
18 forecasters

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

00
2 comments
65 forecasters

Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

40%chance
5% this week
condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

13%
13%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
77 comments
24
24 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
41 comments
143 forecasters

Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?

resultYes
36 comments
225 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

2%chance
49 comments
76 forecasters

Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?

resultNo