11 comments
101 forecasters
How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?
Current estimate
59.2 Deaths
23 comments
53 forecasters
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
Current estimate
89.7 cases
44 comments
422 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
25%chance
5% this week
13 comments
40 forecasters
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
Current estimate
0.833%
23 comments
81 forecasters
Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?
1.5%chance
1.3% this week
12 comments
31 forecasters
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?
Vietnam85%
Singaporeresult: Yes
Taiwan70%
12 comments
48 forecasters
Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?
resultNo