Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

🗳️

US Democracy Index

❓

What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies?

AAPLresult: 102.466B $

AMDresult: 9.246B $

AMZNresult: 180.169B $

2 comments

4 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?

85%chance

0 comments

108 forecasters

Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

6 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?

13%chance

3% today

condition

13 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

0 comments

32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud12%

Amazon Web Services11%

24 comments

80 forecasters

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

50%chance

5% this week

Key Factors

Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.

2 comments

11 forecasters

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

62.8%chance

2 comments

40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Amazon Web Services5%

Microsoft Azure5%

8 comments

49 forecasters

What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?

Current estimate

159B $

What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies?

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?

Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?

What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies?

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?

Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?