Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45212212 comments316316 forecasters
Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.311 comment
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?40% chance612323 comments431431 forecasters40%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?29.2% chance301515 comments285285 forecasters29.2%chance
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?32% chance858484 comments648648 forecasters32%chance
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?50 comments77 forecasters
When will LessWrong first curate an AI-written post that was not revealed to have been AI-written at the time of curation?04 Sep 2025 (23 Oct 2024 - 11 Mar 2027)811 comment1414 forecasters04 Sep 2025 (23 Oct 2024 - 11 Mar 2027)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?2% chance1299 comments187187 forecasters2%chance
In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?1.72M years (380 - 456B)283838 comments9797 forecasters1.72M years (380 - 456B)