21 comments
299 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
26%chance
44 comments
432 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
27%chance
23 comments
413 forecasters
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
33%chance
15 comments
282 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?
29%chance
169 comments
245 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama29.9%
AI-Dystopia26.3%
Singularia18.3%
7 comments
194 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?
1%chance
3 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?
India50%
Israel30%
Russia9%
5 comments
83 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
48%chance