Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?28% chance374545 comments470470 forecasters28%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments331331 forecasters30%chance
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40173173 comments281281 forecasters
Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?5% chance1566 comments100100 forecasters5%chance
In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?1.72M years (380 - 456B)283838 comments9797 forecasters1.72M years (380 - 456B)
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?50 comments77 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?2% chance1299 comments186186 forecasters2%chance
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?36% chance602323 comments424424 forecasters36%chance
When will LessWrong first curate an AI-written post that was not revealed to have been AI-written at the time of curation?04 Sep 2025 (23 Oct 2024 - 11 Mar 2027)811 comment1414 forecasters04 Sep 2025 (23 Oct 2024 - 11 Mar 2027)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?30% chance281515 comments285285 forecasters30%chance
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?33% chance858484 comments646646 forecasters33%chance