How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?50 comments77 forecasters
What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?15.7 (9.39 - >16)577 comments5858 forecastersResolved16
What will be the average impact score, as judged in 2032, for achieving the milestone of reducing antibiotic resistance in strains of pathogenic bacteria by 90% in a high-density fish pond?41111 comments1313 forecasters
What will be the average impact score, as judged in 2032, for accomplishing the milestone of a 90% reduction in antibiotic resistance of pathogenic bacteria in an aquarium?288 comments88 forecasters
What will be the average impact score, as judged in 2032, for accomplishing the milestone of conducting knock-out testing of all recombinant antibodies for 10k proteins?31818 comments1010 forecasters
What will be the average impact score, as judged in 2032, for accomplishing the milestone of conducting knock-out testing of all recombinant antibodies for 15k proteins?488 comments1212 forecasters
What will be the average impact score, as judged in 2032, for accomplishing the milestone of developing a 10-analyte device for in situ monitoring?244 comments1010 forecasters
What will be the average impact score, as judged in 2032, for accomplishing the milestone of developing a 100-analyte device for in situ monitoring?299 comments1111 forecasters
What will be the average impact score, as judged in 2032, for achieving the milestone of screening >10k enterobacteria phage genes and publishing promising new interactions?255 comments99 forecasters
What will be the average impact score, as judged in 2032, for achieving the milestone of screening >10,000 mycobacteria phage genes and publishing promising new interactions?255 comments99 forecasters
What will be the average impact score, as judged in 2032, for accomplishing the milestone of developing a tool that can perturb and record from all neurons in C. elegans?377 comments1212 forecasters
What will be the average impact score, as judged in 2032, for accomplishing the milestone of developing a predictive model of the C. elegans nervous system?388 comments1414 forecasters
What will the share of high impact AI publications from China be in 2027?48.2% (41.7 - 54.2)511 comment1111 forecasters48.2% (41.7 - 54.2)
Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?result: no966 comments5252 forecastersResolvedNo
What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?16 (14.4 - 17.3)677 comments3333 forecastersResolved15.21
Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?result: no477 comments5353 forecastersResolvedNo