Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?27% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters27%chance
Which reproductive technology will achieve more clinical trial successes in human trait selection by 2035?20 comments44 forecasters
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?36% chance602323 comments425425 forecasters36%chance
Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?result: no104104 comments106106 forecastersResolvedNo
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?50 comments77 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22% chance332727 comments229229 forecasters22%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?50% chance655 comments8888 forecasters50%chance
Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?25.9% chance433 comments2828 forecasters25.9%chance
When will LessWrong first curate an AI-written post that was not revealed to have been AI-written at the time of curation?04 Sep 2025 (23 Oct 2024 - 11 Mar 2027)811 comment1414 forecasters04 Sep 2025 (23 Oct 2024 - 11 Mar 2027)