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Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

7

Platform feature suggestions

113

3.4k 3.4k comments

Will the cost of developing a bioproduct be reduced by 100x before 2045, compared with 2024?

65% chance

13

13 forecasters

65%chance

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

9

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

24

332

332 forecasters

30%chance

Key Findings from Frontiers in Disease Prevention with Coefficient Giving

6

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

Suggest questions to launch

120

2.8k 2.8k comments

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub Forum

3

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28% chance

37

471

471 forecasters

28%chance

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

3

Will molecular nanotechnology have been proven feasible by the following years?

7

23

23 forecasters

Introducing the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub

9

Announcing Indexes: Big Questions, Quantified

14

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

11

When will AI arrive?

2

Which reproductive technology will achieve more clinical trial successes in human trait selection by 2035?

2

4

4 forecasters

How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?

5

7

7 forecasters

Longbets: Will there be archaeological discoveries demonstrating equal or greater architectural advancement to the monuments at Göbekli Tepe, dating from before 11,000 BC by 2043?

54.9% chance

4

17

17 forecasters

54.9%chance

When will LessWrong first curate an AI-written post that was not revealed to have been AI-written at the time of curation?

04 Sep 2025 (23 Oct 2024 - 11 Mar 2027)

8

14

14 forecasters

04 Sep 2025

(23 Oct 2024 - 11 Mar 2027)

Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

28% chance

4

27

27 forecasters

28%chance

Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

71% chance

10

39

39 forecasters

71%chance