Which AI lab's model will rank #1 on the LMArena Text Arena overall leaderboard on October 1, 2026?0 comments180180 forecasters
Will a Cognitive-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?5% chance33 comments11 forecaster5%chance
Will an Intelligence-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?5% chance11 comment11 forecaster5%chance
How many months behind the frontier will the best Chinese open-weights AI model be at the end of 2028?0 comments
When will Anthropic IPO?01 Dec 2026 (16 Nov 2026 - 06 Jan 2027)51919 comments2626 forecasters01 Dec 2026 (16 Nov 2026 - 06 Jan 2027)
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45212212 comments316316 forecasters
Which company will hold the #1 rank on the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard on September 17, 2026?148148 comments158158 forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?08 Sep 2027 (11 Sep 2026 - 29 Jan 2030)224669669 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters08 Sep 2027 (11 Sep 2026 - 29 Jan 2030)
Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?75% chance22222 comments5252 forecasters75%chance
Will Massachusetts enact frontier AI safety legislation during the 194th General Court?75% chance211 comment77 forecasters75%chance
Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.322 comments
Will a Chinese frontier model cross the U.S. AI frontier by at least 2 ECI points before 2029?28% chance11 comment1717 forecasters28%chance
Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?70% chance71616 comments4444 forecasters70%chance
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?90% chance755 comments6868 forecasters90%chance
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?21 Jan 2031 (16 Apr 2028 - Jul 2037)220669669 comments1.9k1.9k forecasters21 Jan 2031 (16 Apr 2028 - Jul 2037)
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?71% chance644 comments7575 forecasters71%chance