Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?result: yes251515 comments145145 forecastersResolvedYes
Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?75% chance22 comments1313 forecasters75%chance
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?21 Sep 2028 (29 Jan 2027 - Sep 2032)224630630 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters21 Sep 2028 (29 Jan 2027 - Sep 2032)
Will a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both OpenAI and Anthropic before September 3, 2026?1% chance288 comments8585 forecasters1%chance
In the following years, what will be the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark?988 comments3030 forecasters
When will Anthropic IPO?23 Dec 2026 (31 Oct 2026 - 08 Feb 2027)20 comments1212 forecasters23 Dec 2026 (31 Oct 2026 - 08 Feb 2027)
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?Jun 2033 (30 Jun 2029 - Sep 2041)220654654 comments1.9k1.9k forecastersJun 2033 (30 Jun 2029 - Sep 2041)
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?722 comments5353 forecasters
Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?31818 comments9999 forecasters
Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?57% chance71616 comments4343 forecasters57%chance
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?77% chance644 comments7373 forecasters77%chance
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?41173173 comments282282 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?622 comments6161 forecasters
When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN risk level 4?20 Jul 2027 (18 Jan 2027 - 24 Apr 2028)10 comments44 forecasters20 Jul 2027 (18 Jan 2027 - 24 Apr 2028)
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5858 forecasters
Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?50% chance244 comments6666 forecasters50%chance