Which lab will have the highest score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on August 31, 2026?0 comments129129 forecasters
What will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?22626 comments9797 forecasters
When will an AI system demonstrate full autonomy in software engineering and scientific research?Jan 2032 (24 Jan 2029 - May 2038)-111 comment44 forecastersJan 2032 (24 Jan 2029 - May 2038)
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?622 comments5656 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5757 forecasters
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?98% chance41616 comments198198 forecasters98%chance
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?722 comments5353 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?399 comments4040 forecasters
What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?73.8 (67.6 - 80)0 comments3434 forecasters73.8 (67.6 - 80)
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?17 Jun 2028 (19 Nov 2026 - Mar 2032)223621621 comments1.7k1.7k forecasters17 Jun 2028 (19 Nov 2026 - Mar 2032)
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?322 comments2222 forecasters
Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040? → US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?1122 comments5151 forecasters
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?94% chance422 comments6767 forecasters94%chance
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40173173 comments276276 forecasters
Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?711 comment2525 forecasters
Will there be a breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?99% chance327070 comments300300 forecasters99%chance
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?85% chance544 comments5959 forecasters85%chance
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?20 comments3232 forecasters