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US Democracy Index

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Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet33.7%

OpenAI25.3%

Other16.8%

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments

8 forecasters

What percentage of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate

0.668%

7 comments

131 forecasters

Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?

202636.9%

202732.7%

202814.1%

627 comments

1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

Aug 2033

0 comments

31 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud14.2%

Microsoft Azure14%

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

3 comments

12 forecasters

What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate

75.3%

2 comments

39 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Amazon Web Services5%

Microsoft Azure5%

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments

11 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

33.3%chance

16.7% this week

9 comments

40 forecasters

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No

Sundar Pichairesult: No

Sam Altmanresult: No

Metaculus AI Forecasting Benchmark Resources Page

18 18 comments