Will Claude Mythos or a similar model be publicly released before September 2026?80% chance12727 comments120120 forecasters80%chance
Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?29% chance255 comments118118 forecasters29%chance
Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?111010 comments4949 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?622 comments5353 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5656 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?399 comments4040 forecasters
Will Anthropic make Claude 5 available via a public API before May 1, 2026?result: no112112 comments111111 forecastersResolvedNo
Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?41818 comments9393 forecasters
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?722 comments5151 forecasters
Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023?72020 comments2323 forecasters
Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?55% chance51212 comments128128 forecasters55%chance
Will Anthropic overtake OpenAI in revenue in 2026?result: yes1010 comments2525 forecastersResolvedYes
What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years?677 comments1717 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 65.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question "Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?"?result: no8484 comments8282 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?95% chance422 comments6969 forecasters95%chance
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?322 comments2222 forecasters
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?70% chance66 comments2626 forecasters70%chance
Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?result: yes104646 comments199199 forecastersResolvedYes