When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?28 Aug 2027 (20 Sep 2026 - 17 Oct 2029)224684684 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters28 Aug 2027 (20 Sep 2026 - 17 Oct 2029)
Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?75% chance133 comments3131 forecasters75%chance
Which AI lab's model will rank #1 on the LMArena Text Arena overall leaderboard on October 1, 2026?174174 comments180180 forecasters
Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?70% chance111 comment1212 forecasters70%chance
Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?111010 comments5757 forecasters
Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?11111 comments120120 forecasters
Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?711 comment2727 forecasters
Which company will hold the #1 rank on the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard on September 17, 2026?148148 comments158158 forecasters
Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?97% chance396666 comments257257 forecasters97%chance
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?18 Sep 2030 (22 Mar 2028 - Jun 2036)221671671 comments1.9k1.9k forecasters18 Sep 2030 (22 Mar 2028 - Jun 2036)
When will Anthropic IPO?01 Dec 2026 (19 Nov 2026 - 05 Jan 2027)52020 comments3030 forecasters01 Dec 2026 (19 Nov 2026 - 05 Jan 2027)
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45222222 comments332332 forecasters
Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?60% chance22222 comments5858 forecasters60%chance
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?26.1 months (7.57 - 108)425252 comments358358 forecasters26.1 months (7.57 - 108)
Will an open weight AI model achieve Mythos-level cyber capabilities before July 2027?96% chance1010 comments4848 forecasters96%chance
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4343 forecasters
Will an AI shopping agent service achieve significant commercial deployment by December 31, 2026?98% chance111 comment2222 forecasters98%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments6060 forecasters