Question Feed | Metaculus

Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Health & Pandemics

Computing and Math

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

Sports & Entertainment

🧑‍🤝‍🧑

Social Sciences

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Cryptocurrencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

5

Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?

97% chance

13

13 forecasters

97%chance

When will Anthropic IPO?

08 Jan 2027 (07 Dec 2026 - 11 Feb 2027)

2

8

8 forecasters

08 Jan 2027

(07 Dec 2026 - 11 Feb 2027)

Got Opinions on AI & Labor? The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize Deadline is September 1.

4

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

93% chance

5

49

49 forecasters

93%chance

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

15 Oct 2028 (22 Jan 2027 - Aug 2032)

224

624 624 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

15 Oct 2028

(22 Jan 2027 - Aug 2032)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

58

58 forecasters

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?

13

83

83 forecasters

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

83% chance

6

61

61 forecasters

83%chance

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

3

40

40 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

99% chance

24

144

144 forecasters

99%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

58

58 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

24

331

331 forecasters

30%chance

Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?

3

22

22 forecasters

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

98% chance

33

177

177 forecasters

98%chance

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

98% chance

3

6

6 forecasters

Annulled

Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before September 2026?

30.7% chance

9

9 forecasters

30.7%chance

Winners of the Question Links contest for the Spring Cup

3

When will an AI gain unauthorized access to systems outside its designated environment?

19 Jun 2027 (11 Oct 2026 - 27 Oct 2028)

2

18

18 forecasters

19 Jun 2027

(11 Oct 2026 - 27 Oct 2028)

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

result: no

11

98

98 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

10% chance

5

96

96 forecasters

10%chance

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

7

53

53 forecasters