Contributed by the JetBrains community.
0 comments
3 forecasters
For these benchmarks, what percentage of problems do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?
AI2 Reasoning Challenge97.9
Toloka's µ-MATH94.1
Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A90.8
14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
0 comments
29 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH16%
Microsoft Azure14%
Google Cloud12%
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
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12 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
30%chance
20% this week
12 comments
31 forecasters
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?
Vietnam85%
Singaporeresult: Yes
Taiwan70%
2 comments
38 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH27%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
559 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
29 May 2027