0 comments
32 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud12%
Amazon Web Services11%
97 comments
184 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Mar 2032
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
9 comments
40 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
567 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
27 Nov 2027
Key Factors
3 comments
51 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
631 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jul 2033
Key Factors
3 comments
61 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet34.6%
OpenAI21.2%
Anthropic18.2%
71 comments
414 forecasters
Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?
99.9%chance