3 comments
56 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet29.7%
OpenAI25.8%
Anthropic17.3%
629 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Sep 2033
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
1 comment
9 forecasters
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
82.6%
563 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
22 Sep 2027
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
3 comments
12 forecasters
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
75%
0 comments
31 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%
2 comments
39 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
9 comments
40 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No