Contributed by the JetBrains community.
0 comments
3 forecasters
For these benchmarks, what percentage of problems do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?
AI2 Reasoning Challenge97.9
Toloka's µ-MATH94.1
Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A90.8
14 comments
84 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind20%
xAI5%
Microsoft5%
26 comments
42 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
22% this week
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
12 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
25%chance
25% this week
0 comments
29 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH16%
Microsoft Azure14%
Google Cloud12%
2 comments
38 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH27%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
3 comments
13 forecasters
When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?
In 2026-202744.5%
In 2028-202922.2%
2030 or later20%
12 comments
31 forecasters
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?
Vietnam85%
Singaporeresult: Yes
Taiwan70%