4 comments
1 forecaster
How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?
Current estimate
Revealed in 2 days
0 comments
32 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud12%
Amazon Web Services11%
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
97 comments
184 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Mar 2032
567 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
20 Nov 2027
Key Factors
3 comments
51 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
631 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jul 2033
Key Factors
13 comments
130 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%chance
71 comments
414 forecasters
Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?
99.9%chance