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1
comment
12
forecasters
In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in Peano arithmetic?
Current estimate
68
17
comments
19
forecasters
When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?
Current estimate
Jan 2038
2
comments
13
forecasters
In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in ZFC set theory?
Current estimate
78.8
3
comments
22
forecasters
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?
Current estimate
99.1%
1
comment
35
forecasters
When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition?
Current estimate
17 Jul 2029
3
comments
18
forecasters
When will an AI solve half the questions on a Miklós Schweitzer competition?
Current estimate
23 Sep 2026
1
comment
11
forecasters
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?
Current estimate
96.7%
Contributed by the
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
community.
7
comments
21
forecasters
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
56.7%
6
comments
33
forecasters
Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?
60%
chance
4
comments
62
forecasters
Will a small Turing machine (< 100 states) be found with behavior that cannot be characterized by mathematical proof?
result
No
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