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Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

1 comment
9 forecasters

What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
82.6%

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

3 comments
12 forecasters

What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
75%

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments
21 comments
300 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance
5% this week
2 comments
53 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

78%chance
44 comments
432 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance
3 comments
6 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

Annulled
12 comments
131 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%chance
92 comments
182 forecasters

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Current estimate
Jan 2031
2 comments
31 forecasters

Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

OpenAI GPT-4, not optionalresult: No
Anthropic AI Claude, not optionalresult: No
OpenAI GPT-4, optionalresult: No