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🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!
4
0
comments
26
comments
43
forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%
chance
9%
this week
169
comments
243
forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama
30%
AI-Dystopia
23.7%
Singularia
18.9%
2 others
27%
20
comments
287
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
24%
chance
2
comments
52
forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%
chance
7
comments
91
forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit
80%
Government
20%
Non-profit
5%
3 others
2
comments
31
forecasters
Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?
OpenAI GPT-4, not optional
result:
No
Anthropic AI Claude, not optional
result:
No
OpenAI GPT-4, optional
result:
No
3 others
3
comments
6
forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?
Annulled
43
comments
422
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
21%
chance
12
comments
129
forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%
chance
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