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Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
0 comments
AI Progress Essay Contest

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments
44 comments
434 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance
21 comments
305 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance
7 comments
92 forecasters

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

For-profit80%
Government20%
Non-profit5%
2 comments
51 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

78%chance
3 comments
6 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

Annulled
12 comments
130 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%chance
2 comments
31 forecasters

Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

OpenAI GPT-4, not optionalresult: No
Anthropic AI Claude, not optionalresult: No
OpenAI GPT-4, optionalresult: No
169 comments
245 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama30.6%
AI-Dystopia24.4%
Singularia19%