Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?99% chance241414 comments145145 forecasters99%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242323 comments331331 forecasters30%chance
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?98% chance333 comments66 forecastersAnnulled
When will an AI gain unauthorized access to systems outside its designated environment?19 Jun 2027 (11 Oct 2026 - 27 Oct 2028)21111 comments1818 forecasters19 Jun 2027 (11 Oct 2026 - 27 Oct 2028)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?30% chance374545 comments470470 forecasters30%chance
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?71% chance644 comments7272 forecasters71%chance
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?20 comments4444 forecasters
Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?622 comments3131 forecasters
When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?27 Dec 2028 (28 Jul 2025 - Nov 2033)988 comments3232 forecasters27 Dec 2028 (28 Jul 2025 - Nov 2033)
Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication13 May 2026 (24 Aug 2025 - 17 Mar 2027)10 comments33 forecasters13 May 2026 (24 Aug 2025 - 17 Mar 2027)
Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?1% chance243131 comments218218 forecasters1%chance
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?13% chance42626 comments5353 forecasters13%chance
Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?69% chance122 comments118118 forecasters69%chance
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?1% chance491717 comments437437 forecasters1%chance
3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026? → Date of Artificial General Intelligence70 comments1515 forecasters
When will an AI pass the laugh test?04 Apr 2026 (15 Feb 2025 - 17 Mar 2028)111010 comments9999 forecasters04 Apr 2026 (15 Feb 2025 - 17 Mar 2028)