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Artificial Intelligence
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Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence
10
0
comments
AI Progress Essay Contest
🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!
4
0
comments
44
comments
434
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%
chance
21
comments
305
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%
chance
7
comments
92
forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit
80%
Government
20%
Non-profit
5%
3 others
2
comments
51
forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
78%
chance
3
comments
6
forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?
Annulled
12
comments
130
forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%
chance
2
comments
31
forecasters
Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?
OpenAI GPT-4, not optional
result:
No
Anthropic AI Claude, not optional
result:
No
OpenAI GPT-4, optional
result:
No
3 others
169
comments
245
forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama
30.6%
AI-Dystopia
24.4%
Singularia
19%
2 others
26%
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