Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?27% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters27%chance
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?98% chance333 comments66 forecastersAnnulled
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?99% chance231313 comments141141 forecasters99%chance
Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?622 comments3131 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?70% chance633 comments7373 forecasters70%chance
If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?50% chance273939 comments178178 forecasters50%chance
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?11% chance42626 comments4949 forecasters11%chance
When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?27 Dec 2028 (28 Jul 2025 - Nov 2033)988 comments3232 forecasters27 Dec 2028 (28 Jul 2025 - Nov 2033)
Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?63% chance122 comments118118 forecasters63%chance
When will an AI pass the laugh test?03 Apr 2026 (06 Feb 2025 - 18 Apr 2028)111010 comments9999 forecasters03 Apr 2026 (06 Feb 2025 - 18 Apr 2028)
PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems52.7 (38 - 67.8)944 comments5959 forecasters52.7 (38 - 67.8)
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?1% chance491616 comments438438 forecasters1%chance
When will an AI gain unauthorized access to systems outside its designated environment?07 Nov 2027 (03 Dec 2026 - 29 Apr 2029)21010 comments1717 forecasters07 Nov 2027 (03 Dec 2026 - 29 Apr 2029)
Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication13 May 2026 (24 Aug 2025 - 17 Mar 2027)10 comments33 forecasters13 May 2026 (24 Aug 2025 - 17 Mar 2027)
3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026? → Date of Artificial General Intelligence70 comments1515 forecasters
Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?1% chance233131 comments219219 forecasters1%chance
A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realisticresult: no201313 comments110110 forecastersResolvedNo