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Contributed by the
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
community.
1
comment
9
forecasters
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
82.6%
Contributed by the
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
community.
3
comments
12
forecasters
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
75%
🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!
4
0
comments
21
comments
300
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%
chance
5%
this week
2
comments
53
forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
78%
chance
44
comments
432
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
27%
chance
3
comments
6
forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?
Annulled
12
comments
131
forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%
chance
92
comments
182
forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Jan 2031
2
comments
31
forecasters
Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?
OpenAI GPT-4, not optional
result:
No
Anthropic AI Claude, not optional
result:
No
OpenAI GPT-4, optional
result:
No
3 others
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