Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?11111 comments115115 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?71% chance644 comments7575 forecasters71%chance
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?result: yes251515 comments145145 forecastersResolvedYes
If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?25% chance262626 comments341341 forecasters25%chance
Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?88% chance122 comments134134 forecasters88%chance
Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?80% chance22 comments1717 forecasters80%chance
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?98% chance333 comments66 forecastersAnnulled
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?20 comments5050 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?44% chance384646 comments476476 forecasters44%chance
When will an AI gain unauthorized access to systems outside its designated environment?21 Mar 2027 (22 Aug 2026 - 14 Mar 2028)21212 comments2222 forecasters21 Mar 2027 (22 Aug 2026 - 14 Mar 2028)
When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?27 Dec 2028 (28 Jul 2025 - Nov 2033)988 comments3232 forecasters27 Dec 2028 (28 Jul 2025 - Nov 2033)
Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?1% chance253131 comments218218 forecasters1%chance
Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?622 comments3131 forecasters
Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication13 May 2026 (24 Aug 2025 - 17 Mar 2027)10 comments33 forecasters13 May 2026 (24 Aug 2025 - 17 Mar 2027)
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?11% chance42626 comments5353 forecasters11%chance
PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems52.7 (38 - 67.8)944 comments5959 forecastersResolved39.19
3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026? → Date of Artificial General Intelligence70 comments1515 forecasters